So a subscriber who joins in June will almost definitely find the product experience better than someone who joined at launch. Source: Ampere Analysis We’ve also used the plural because these streaming wars also concern formats and models with AVOD fighting with SVOD and short format competing with long format, with public announcements from Quibi highlighting this at CES 2010. According to MediaREDEF’s Matthew Ball, Netflix’s catalog has shrunk by two-thirds since 2012, and yet the company has raised its prices by 46% and continues to add subscribers. Quibi’s leadership had always planned on making data-driven decisions post-launch, with Katzenberg commenting in an interview last June, “Until day one, every decision that we make around content will be driven by instinct. Quibi is set to launch on April 6th. Much like T-Mobile’s “Netflix on Us” promotion, customers who want free access to shortform video streaming service Quibi will have to meet a specific requirement: they must have a multiple-line plan with the carrier. For many of Quibi’s investors, who are the very Hollywood studios creating content for the company, the bar for investing more capital is likely lower than you think. Whitman has said as much about her timeline for assessing the feasibility of Quibi, noting, “We’re still new at this and it’s the unknown unknowns that we’re trying to figure out. If Quibi’s launch experience and consumer proposition is subpar, exposing millions of users to a product that hasn’t yet found product-market fit is like trying to fill a leaky bucket — an awful waste of money. Or will Quibi suffer because it was built to be consumed while on the go? You can see the difference in public opinions on Quibi’s capital raise based on whether the individual is in the tech industry or someone with expertise in the media industry: Matthew Ball, the former head of strategy for Amazon Studios, contends that you can criticize the idea of Quibi, but not the capital spent to build out the content pipeline. Alex Kruglov is the CEO of pop.in, a mobile "Game Night" app where people play fun party games with each other while on live video. Minutes after we launch, everything will be driven by data.” CEO Meg Whitman has doubled down on this philosophy, stating in a recent interview with Deadline, “We now have a chance to hone in on what we’re doing. For reference, in the first quarter of 2007, when Netflix streaming — then known as “Instant Watch” — first became available, the company only added 481,000 net new subscribers. And then there’s Quibi. I’m very focused on ‘where are we after a year?’”. However, the comment could also be interpreted as providing cover for his team in an attempt to keep spirits high as they continue to build, iterate, and find product-market fit. At launch, Katzenberg and Whitman had hoped that consumers would have additional free time, and would be starving for fresh content — Quibi had a deep catalog of 45-plus shows at launch. AB5 Brings Uncertainty: The new California Assembly Bill 5 (AB5) became effective on January 1, 2020. But I wouldn’t count it out just yet. It is a text-based reproduction of my April 26 tweetstorm. In some ways, lower-than-anticipated initial adoption is actually a blessing for the company. One of the most important metrics in subscription businesses is churn, or the percentage of subscribers who unsubscribe on a monthly basis. But she acknowledged that there are still questions around how many users will stick with the app once the trial period is over. But it quickly fell in rankings in the app store, none of the launch content has reached the cultural zeitgeist, and in a feisty interview with the New York Times last week, founder Jeffrey Katzenberg complained that the number of users did not meet expectations, saying, “It’s not up to what we wanted. Interestingly, although Quibi quickly dropped out of the top 10 downloaded apps on the App Store, it hasn’t plummeted as far as most people think. In October, I wrote a brief summary of the strategy behind Fortnite’s shocking “black hole” event.Here is a quick summary of my thoughts on Fortnite’s Travis Scott live concert. Matthew Ball … Going forward, Quibi must execute on three dimensions in order to survive, which in this case means raising more capital from investors in six to 12 months. Whitman said Quibi the launch has exceeded their expectations, describing it as “one of the most successful launches of a completely new brand and a completely new app”. Quibi is hoping that its partnership with T-Mobile will help garner as many subscribers as possible when it launches. After two years and hundreds of millions of dollars spent in the ramp-up to launching a new subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) service led by two of the most seasoned and successful tech and media executives, does the underwhelming launch mean the inevitable demise of Quibi? Has Come in Just 5 Years, Inside the Surprisingly Big Business of Spotify’s Secretive White-Noise Spammers. [Writer 1] False.Black bear. ... Matthew Ball breaks this down, using data from Antenna. Quibi has already reportedly revised its first-year projections, which had expected 7 million subscribers and $250 million in subscriber revenue. 1. Still a relaxed one year before launch. Quibi raised USD 1.75 billion two years before launching its first product. The company’s core value proposition, which it spent years building a product for, was undoubtedly damaged by the pandemic. Prior to that, Disney announced that its Disney Plus streaming service would be free for Verizon customers for one year. But most consumers won't need to make that choice. — How soon will Hollywood’s TV production suspensions affect the pipeline of new episodes? Katzenberg also shared that 80% of users who start a piece of content finish it, which is an encouraging engagement metric. This can be a net positive for new streamers launching over the next few months, including Quibi, HBO Max, and Peacock. A newsletter that puts the week's most compelling tech stories in context, by OneZero senior writer Will Oremus. But it’s Epic Games, with Fortnite, that has the most viable path forward in terms of creating the Metaverse, according to an essay by venture capitalist and former Amazon executive Matthew Ball. Matthew Ball, in his wonderful recent piece “Audio’s Opportunity and Who Will Capture It”, expresses this ‘unlock’ through the lens of the possible migration of spoken audio distribution from the legacy RSS format, to a novel, Spotify-owned format (bold added by me): While Antenna’s data is an educated guess, Tase and Carson are respected in the industry, and their work recently showed up in an essay about the impact of COVID-19 by analyst Six weeks after launch, Quibi has a reported 3.5 million downloads and 1.3 million active users. More studios like Disney, Universal, Warner Bros., and Sony have started bringing films to VOD and streaming early in an attempt to earn revenue and boost subscriber numbers. Whether people want to spend time on their phones watching short snippets of series instead of using the app on the go, which is how founder Jeffrey Katzenberg and CEO Meg Whitman imagined people would use Quibi, is the looming question. Ask the Porn Industry. Matthew Ball is a venture capitalist and digital media strategist. Quibi will also only be available on mobile devices, unlike streamers like Disney Plus, Netflix, and Hulu. Zeynep Tufekci on masks, media, and information ecology. Every weekend, hundreds of headlines are written about the latest box office blockbuster or bomb. When Quibi finally launched a few weeks ago, I wrote a piece about the finer details of the platform that skeptics seemed to ignore altogether. Quibi is marketing itself in a tongue-in-cheek way: its ads make fun of the fact that the world probably doesn't need another video service. The trial initially ran through April 6th, but has since been extended to April 20th. Inside Disney's $200M Gamble on Mulan (Hollywood Reporter) Morning Brew office, content team weekly check-in: [Writer 1] Question: What kind of streaming service is best? There’s no such thing as an overnight success, and Quibi is just the latest proof of that. newsletter, increase in subscribers and customers respectively. Launching at a time when people are looking for more entertainment might be just what Quibi needs right now. Update (March 20th, 4:30pm ET): The story has been updated to include new information about the free trial date. Matthew Ball on Disney and Bob Iger. More than that, like Netflix, Quibi is continually learning which shows to surface to new users to best ensure they get hooked. Everything. His essays and investments can be found at www.matthewball.vc and @ballmatthew. It’s similar to T-Mobile’s deal with Netflix. However, as Nathan Baschez and Adam Keesling explain in a recent piece with the headline “Quibi Will Be a Multi-Billion Dollar Company,” “Quibi isn’t a tech startup. This could in part be due to the company’s partnership with T-Mobile, which is giving some subscribers a free year of the service. Working from a lower initial customer base allows Quibi to use data, customer feedback, and product iteration to improve the experience, before spending to acquire new customers. Quibi, like many other streamers, has found itself in an unusual moment. Eugene Wei on the half-life of information. This article – Quibi versus the world – is worth reading. The app also didn’t allow sharing content to social media platforms like Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and Reddit at launch, but they are also in the process of remedying this gap, which should lead to increased earned media and organic customer acquisition. In some ways, lower-than-anticipated initial adoption is actually a blessing for the company. In hindsight, Quibi’s best move may have been to delay its launch a few months until every other streaming service was out of fresh content due to production shutdowns. Raise enough to test a hypothesis, and ... and media than you might think. Still, the longterm success of these streamers comes down to new content and keeping people engaged, according to analyst Matthew Ball. Nearly all media coverage of Quibi has been negative, and partially because of this, even consumers who are interested in some of the content on the app seem to entirely shun the thought of downloading it. For a very good reason: Hollywood talent is expensive, and the entire premise of their strategy rests on it. What’s Next for Parler? It then went on to raise another USD 750 million a year after that. (See: Magic Leap.) Quibi is quickly iterating on product with feedback from users, has strategic investors who are likely to continue funding the company, and has a management team with deep experience leading through difficult times. Take a look, An Oral History of Wikipedia, the Web’s Encyclopedia, The Moderation War Is Coming to Spotify, Substack, and Clubhouse. It’s a media business. Finally, the company has to find a way to change the narrative of the brand. Matthew Ball has argued otherwise in The Flaws of "Subscription Fatigue", "SVOD Fatigue", and the "Streaming Wars" that Quibi is focused on a new type of need and that it can build a defensible position. Anyone who has experienced “revised projections” or underwhelming product launches knows the importance of maintaining morale and focus within a company. Launching at a time when people are looking for more entertainment might be just what Quibi needs right now. For them, investing more capital in Quibi is taking money from one pocket and putting it in the other. Within weeks, Quibi announced that the functionality to cast content to TVs would be added in the next month, a relatively quick product improvement. Kinsey Grant [00:05:23] There are also some smaller players out there that are maybe not considered part of the streaming wars narrative, something like Quibi. The catalyst for writing that piece was a frustration that journalists, venture capitalists, and many others seemed to be dismissing Quibi both offhandedly and with a seemingly personal joy in what they knew would be the company’s eventual failure. Still a relaxed one year before launch. Then the Radical Right Arrived. The partnership has helped both Disney and Verizon, whose executives touted an increase in subscribers and customers respectively during calls with investors in the most recent earnings season. — Will, as Matthew Ball suggested, ... — Is this homebound life an opening for Quibi, which is supposed to launch in a few weeks? Quibi, like many other streamers, ... according to analyst Matthew Ball. The ads also try to introduce the word "Quibi" into our vocabulary (apparently a Quibi is essentially a 10-minute segment of time). Matthew Ball [00:05:20] Those are the expected big players. This is an unflattering quote from an executive, seemingly passing off all responsibility for an underwhelming launch. One interesting component for Quibi is that it becomes a better proposition on a weekly basis, since all of its content is new and not available anywhere else. Automattic CEO Matt Mullenweg on working from home. Matthew Ball, the former head of strategy for Amazon Studios, contends that you can criticize the idea of Quibi, but not the capital spent to build out the content pipeline.If you believed in the idea (as Quibi’s team undoubtedly does), the only way to launch was to raise and spend hundreds of millions of dollars. MeWe Sold Itself on Privacy. For technology companies, it most likely is! Media analyst Matthew Ball recently wrote that "It's increasingly clear that (niche is) not going to work." T-Mobile’s deal with Quibi is reportedly only available to customers with more than one line, The M1-powered MacBook Pro is $80 off at Amazon and B&H Photo, Sign up for the Quibi is also offering a 90-day free trial to people who sign up on the website before April 20th. Of course, hindsight is 20/20. If you haven’t heard of Quibi, you’d be forgiven to think it was a rocket company to rival SpaceX. And then there’s Quibi. Int. Even if Quibi doesn’t ultimately IPO or get acquired for huge returns for its backers, the capital invested in Quibi is used to license content from these very studios, and due to the company’s licensing agreements, they ultimately end up with the rights to that content in perpetuity. -- Will, as Matthew Ball suggested, TV distributors invoke force majeure clauses to renegotiate their "payments to ESPN?" That hasn’t turned out to be the case, and Katzenberg changed his tune in the New York Times interview, saying, “I attribute everything that has gone wrong to coronavirus. How AWS and Other Cloud Providers Became the Internet’s Most Powerful Moderators, Take a Look at How Far Image Generation A.I. For those unfamiliar, Quibi is a short-form video app that will cost $5 a month with ads, or $8 a month without them. This is exactly what Quibi is doing. Okta CEO Todd McKinnon on Okta’s identity opportunity and operating during COVID. [Writer 2] That’s a ridiculous question. As long as Quibi is able to show positive trends over the first year in market, it will likely be able to continue raising capital. Quibi launched in April 2020 and shutdown in October. This can be a net positive for new streamers launching over the next few months, including Quibi, HBO Max, and Peacock. First, it must continue to leverage data to improve the user experience, add new features and functionality, and find the content that is most unique and compelling to consumers. Matthew Ball recently published another fascinating article about what cloud video game streaming may look like in the future. (Disclosure: Vox Media, which owns The Verge, has a deal with Quibi to produce a Polygon Daily Essential, and there have been early talks about a Verge show.). Video-streaming device maker Roku is officially acquiring the right's to short-live Quibi's content library that includes 75 original shows. It is, and always has been, easy to be skeptical of Quibi. I don’t think so. Think Netflix, Hulu, IMDB TV, YouTube and even TikTok and I am sure if you ask yourself “Do I really need ONE MORE SVOD”, the answer likely is no. We’re learning something new every day.”, Quibi was in the unenviable position of launching a mobile-focused product at the beginning of a global pandemic keeping people in their homes. If you haven’t heard of Quibi, you’d be forgiven to think it was a rocket company to rival SpaceX. Obviously this is not an apples to apples comparison, but it does provide color for the 3.5 million month-one downloads for Quibi. They literally couldn’t have started the company on much less.”. Are those considered also players in this back and forth? Launching in July, August, or September may have given Quibi the advantage of having the deepest catalog of new, original content, along with more people beginning to leave their homes on a regular basis. Second, much of the criticism is coming from Silicon Valley tech types, who viewed raising $1.75 billion before launching a product and getting customer feedback as asinine. Quibi, Peacock And HBO Max Are All Set To Launch In The Coming Months. (After all, the app launched during a global pandemic when everyone is stuck inside.) Quibi will only be free in an exclusive offer “to subscribers who pay for two or more lines of postpaid service,” Protocol reports. "The cost of content doesn't change based on whether the buyer is large or small, profitable or unprofitable, niche or broad," Ball told dot.LA. As analyst and venture capitalist Matthew Ball noted on Twitter, the fact that people are stuck at home “will give every new, nascent and yet-to-launch OTT video service a … That's why analyst Matthew Ball argued we should stop using the phrase "streaming wars" since this is more like a battle in a larger war: When the future of the world looked like picking from two dozen Netflixes, it made sense the average household would settle on only a few. Still, the longterm success of these streamers comes down to new content and keeping people engaged, according to analyst Matthew Ball. Is Quibi dead on arrival? There are two different tiers: a $4.99 plan with ads and a $7.99 plan without ads. From 2016 to 2018, he was head of strategy at Amazon Studios. — Matthew Ball (@ballmatthew) April 13, 2020. It then went on to raise another USD 750 million a year after that. Baschez and Keesling agree in their piece, explaining, “Why would they raise so much money at such a high valuation? As media analyst Rich Greenfield has said, “Churn is the killer of new subscription video services.” Churned users are unlikely to return, and the cost to acquire new customers to replace them is likely to be higher, as paid advertising picks the low-hanging fruit first, metaphorically speaking. Written By Matthew Ball There is a strange disconnect between our collective obsession with media and the amount of money we spend on it. Quibi launched with a 90-day free trial for users who signed up before the end of April, and the percentage of users who convert to subscribers after their free trial ends will be enlightening. Most new things fail, and you’ll never be ridiculed for thinking that something new won’t succeed. Although it was intended to be watched exclusively on smartphones while outside of one’s home, the company received feedback from users that they wanted to be able to watch the content on their TVs. It is, and always has been, easy to be skeptical of Quibi. As more people stay home to try to reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus, people are turning to streaming entertainment more frequently. The situation in the US is predicted look like this: But MasterClass did something different than Quibi: it took things step by step. While it launched with around 50 shows, Quibi releases more new content (both new shows and episodes) each week, along with adding new features. Matthew Ball said this on the most recent episode of the Recode Media podcast and it seems so incredibly on the money: The particularly terrifying piece of this when you take a look and try to understand how much headroom is left, Netflix said years ago that they thought the United States would saturate at 60-90 million. The company doesn’t have any plans to share just yet, The Verge has learned. The criticism that I saw before Quibi’s launch seemed to me to come down to two factors: First, as Eric Lu, the co-founder of Kapwing, tweeted recently, it’s easy to criticize new things. It’s not close to what we wanted.” So, were the skeptics right? Ferrari Capital Efficiency This snippet from an interview with a Ferrari former executive compares and juxtaposes the company's capital efficiency and production approach with mass market car producers. But we own it.”. Matthew Ball + Your Authors @ballmatthew Strategist, essayist, that guy on Twitter, ... 6/ To this end, the company has been incredibly vocal about extending the Quibi length, doing binge releases, changing the formats, etc., based on user feedback. The company first revealed its partnership with T-Mobile back in October. Second, it must show progress on KPIs like engagement, conversion, and retention. And that turns out to be an important distinction.”. Quibi raised USD 1.75 billion two years before launching its first product. If you believed in the idea (as Quibi’s team undoubtedly does), the only way to launch was to raise and spend hundreds of millions of dollars. As Ball has noted, there seemed to be an expectation that because of the amount of capital raised, Quibi should have instantly found product-market fit on the day it launched — but that historically hasn’t happened for new media formats and consumer behaviors. Tim Culpan on Taiwan, COVID, and Apple’s supply chain. 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